FOMC Minutes to be released today in the US - 22.2.2023

On Tuesday, the US dollar index rose slightly. Now it is trading above 104 points. Positive was the unexpected rise in the S&P Global Composite PMI to 50.2 points according to preliminary estimates for February. This is his maximum for 8 months. Thus, the US economy is showing good development despite the repeated increase in the Fed rate (4.75%). Investors hope for further tightening of monetary policy. This is the main factor behind the strengthening of the US dollar. This morning the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the rate to 4.75% from 4.25%. This happened for the 10th time in a row. The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar was moderate, as the New Zealand Trade Balance was published at the same time, which turned out to be worse than expected. The negative balance of New Zealand's foreign trade has been maintained for 8 months in a row.

Bitcoin quotes are declining for the 2nd day in a row today. The US The Security and Exchange Commission is studying the regulation of cryptocurrencies that are pegged to the US dollar (stablecoin). Last week, the American regulator interacted on this issue with the Paxos Trust Company crypto platform.

Yesterday, the US stock market saw a significant drop in quotes. The good performance of the US economy has increased the likelihood of a rate hike by the Fed. This could be negative for the stock market. Investors do not rule out that the Fed rate will reach 5.5% in July this year. Retail chain Home Depot cut its 2023 profit forecast and its shares fell 7%. A similar company Lowe's was down 5.1%. Today the US will publish quarterly reports of NVIDIA Corporation, eBay, and other companies. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be published.

On Tuesday, oil prices resumed their decline. Investors are waiting for today's publication of data on US reserves from the American Petroleum Institute. This week they are released with a 1-day delay due to the holiday on Monday (Washington's Birthday). In general, it can be noted that since mid-November 2022, oil has been trading in a neutral range. For WTI, it is approximately $70-80 per barrel.

Natural gas in Europe on the ICE Dutch TTF is trading at about $540 per 1,000 cubic meters for the 4th day. US gas quotes on the Henry Hub have fallen to $2.1 mmBtu today. This is the lowest since August 2020. The main reason for the negative trend is warm weather and large gas reserves in the US. Now they are 17% more than last year's level.