The US GDP growth is better than expected - 28.8.2015

The US economy grew at 3,7% rate in the 2nd quarter, the data were released on Thursday. This exceeds the 2,3% announced in the first reading and is much better than the GDP fall of 0,7% in the first quarter. Let us remind you that the US published the positive data on the durable goods order growth for the 4th time in a row on Wednesday. The global stock markets saw the rally on Wednesday and Thursday owing to the positive statistics from the US. The two-day growth of the Dow Jones industrial average happens to be the biggest since 2008, and that of S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since the 2009. The US Dollar Index was on increase as well while today it slightly diminishes. Amid the positive economic situation the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New-York William Dudley says the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates in September is “less compelling”. The market participants estimate the probability of rates hike to be 25%. In our opinion, the rates hike would support dollar and move down the shares prices. Today and tomorrow the heads of the major Central Banks of various countries have a meeting in New York, US. We do not rule out the possibility that their comments may influence the quotations of some currencies. The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has diminished to 15,4 from 17. The trade volume on the American stock exchanges hit a this year’s high yesterday and equaled 9,9 bln. shares. Today at 14:30 CET the US will release the personal income and expenditure data for July. At 16:00 CET the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is to be released. The outlook is positive.

The European shares are sliding down today after a two-days growth. Despite the major fluctuations, the all European FTSEurofirst 300 index weekly change may be insufficient. Instead, chances are that the Stoxx Europe 600 Index monthly slump is the biggest since August 2011. At 14:00 CET today the German Consumer Price Index of August is to be released. In our opinion, the outlook is negative as deflation is expected.

The Nikkei Index kept growing today due to the positive macroeconomic data. The National Consumer Price Index ex-fresh food turned out to be 0,0% in July instead of the expected deflation. The jobless rate has decreased and the retail trade went up. The Yen has become cheaper to the US Dollar which triggered the growth of the exporters shares: Toyota Motor (+4,6%) and Panasonic (+4,2%). The metals’ increase in price has led to the shares prices growth of Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal of 7,6% and of Toho Zinc of 7,1%. The majorJapanese fund Next Funds Nikkei 225, trading the weighted ETF on the stock index, has started operation again after the limit surge from 700 bln. Yens to 1 trn. Yens. In our opinion, it may start buying shares which will be a positive factor for the Japanese market. The fund is managed by the Nomura Asset Management. The industrial production and the housing starts are to be released early in the morning on Monday morning. Our outlook is negative.

The gold price has diminished slightly amid the positive economic statistics from the US and is supported by the low probability of the rate hike in September by the Fed. The copper is struggling for the correction after hitting the six-year low on Monday. Yesterday it showed the maximum daily growth since May 2013.

The rice quotations have corrected down slightly during the last two weeks and resumed their growth today. The Asian countries increase the rice stocks on the concerns that El Nino may damage the crop. Let us emphasize that the crop futures quotations are a bit behind the rice price growth.

The soy price hit a fresh 6-year low on Monday and have rebounded more than 2% for the last two days. The US Agricultural Department has increased its expected export volume for the 2015/2016 season.