Technical Analysis &CNHRUB : 2019-11-13

Getting ready for the publication of significant statistics

In this review, we suggest to consider the personal composite instrument (PCI) CNHRUB. It reflects the price dynamics of oil against the Canadian dollar. Will the CNHRUB quotations grow?

Such a movement on the chart is observed in case of the weakening of the ruble and strengthening of the yuan against the US dollar. The data on the industrial production growth and the GDP data for October 2019 was published in Russia on November 2019. According to forecasts, it will be less than +3% и +2%, observed in September. The data on retail sales and industrial product for October will come out on November 14, 2019 in China. The growth of given indicators is expected, if compared with September. The expectations of the decrease in the rate of Central Bank of Russia, which is now 6.5% can be an additional negative for ruble. In October, deflation was observed in Russia. The growth of consumer prices has slowed up to 3,8% in annual terms, if compared with 4% in September. The positive side for yuan can be the conclusion of the trade agreement between China and USA and the abolition or easing of mutual sanctions and tariffs.

CNHRUB

On the daily timeframe, CNHRUB: D1 has left the downtrend to move upwards. Before opening a buy position, it should breach the upper boundary of that rising channel. A number of technical analysis indicators formed buy signals. Further growth of quotations is possible in the case of positive macroeconomic and political data from China and statements about a rate cut by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

  • The Parabolic Indicator gives a bullish signal
  • The Bolinger bands narrowed, indicating a volatility decrease. Both Bollinger Lines Slope Up.
  • The RSI indicator is above 50. No divergence.
  • The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case of CNHRUB exceeds the upper Bollinger line and its last upper fractal: 9,17. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial stop lose should be placed below the last fractal low, the Parabolic signal, the minimum since March 2018 and the lower Bollinger line: 8,95. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (8,95) without reaching the order (9,17), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis

PositionBuy
Buy stopAbove 9,17
Stop lossBelow 8,95

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