#C-CORN Price Forecast | Drought in South America could cut corn crop | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-CORN : 2020-06-02

Recommendation for Corn :

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 333

Buy Stop

Below 307

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1572
RSI Neutral
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, Corn: D1 beached up the resistance line of the short-term downtrend. Now it is in a growing channel, correcting upward from the minimum since 2009 and has reached the 1st Fibonacci level. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for a further increase. We do not exclude a bullish movement if Corn rises above the last upper fractal, the upper Bollinger line and the 1st Fibonacci level: 333. This level can be used as an entry point. We can set a stop loss below the Parabolic signal, the lower Bollinger line and the minimum since 2009: 307. After opening a pending order, the stop loss should be moved following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the trend. If the price meets the stop loss level (307) without activating the order (333), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

The decline in the water level of the Parana River due to drought may reduce corn yields in Argentina and Paraguay. This was reported by the Brazilian trader AgriBrasil. Will Corn quotes grow ?

Argentina is the 4th largest producer and exporter of corn in the world. Paraguay grows not much corn, but it takes the 11th place in its exports to the world. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that US corn exports totaled 477 million bushels over the past week. This is 1.2 million bushels more than a week earlier and 14 million bushels more than the same week last year. Japan purchased 39% of US corn exports last week. Other major buyers were Mexico, South Korea and Colombia. Note that according to the CFTC, the volume of net short positions for corn has peaked since April 2019. This happened because at the end of April this year, corn quotes fell to a minimum since 2009. Now they are trying to correct upward. If market players have to close short positions, this could trigger a speculative price increase.

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