fbGB100 Forecast | Weak British data bearish for GB100 | IFCM

Technical Analysis GB100 : 2020-07-24

Recommendation for GB 100 Index:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 6151.73

Sell Stop

Above 6288.82

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1653
RSI Neutral
Donchian Channel Sell
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the 4-hour timeframe GB100: H4 has breached below the 200-period moving average MA(200), which is rising still. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 6151.73. A level below this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 6288.82. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (6288.82) without reaching the order (6151.73), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Economic data from UK point that economic recovery that began in late April has stalled in recent weeks. Will the GB100 retreat resume?

UK economic data in the last couple of weeks were mixed. The trade surplus rose in May, however the GDP contraction for May over the same period a year ago was bigger than forecast. At the same time as average earnings including bonuses declined less than expected in May the inflation was higher than expected in June. On the negative side the Confederation of British Industry's reported decline in factory orders was bigger than expected for July. And latest spending data for mid-July show UK consumers remain cautious despite easing of lockdown for some sectors, according to figures from Band of England (BoE) and on card payments. Sharp improvement in spending on some travel and food and drinks outside the home was offset by deterioration for groceries and in hardware and garden stores. Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee said these spending patterns likely suggest a slower recovery than the so far “V shaped” assessments by BoE. Deteriorating economic data are bearish for GB100.

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