Gold Stays Strong with Fed Rate Cut in October Seen as a Done Deal - 2.10.2025

Senior Analyst

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Todays’ Market Summary

The live dollar index stayed flat
Bitcoin is closing in on its all-time high of $124,128.
U.S. stocks ended higher despite the shutdown.
Oil prices bounced back after three days of losses.
Gold traded near record highs at around $3,860 per ounce.

Top daily news

The U.S. dollar tried to recover on Thursday after four days of losses. The Supreme Court said it would review President Trump’s push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but she stays in her role until at least January. For now, concerns about the Fed’s independence are on pause.

Markets are watching the U.S. government shutdown, which has already stopped important data from being released. The September jobs report will not come out this Friday. Shutdown could last one to two weeks, but there’s still a chance it drags on longer.

The ADP private payrolls report showed a surprise drop of 32,000 jobs in September. This adds pressure on the Fed, with investors almost certain it will cut rates at its October meeting.

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Forex news

The live dollar index stayed flat after trying to rise early in the day, last trading around 97.74.

EUR/USD was steady at $1.1733 after reports that the U.S. will give Ukraine intelligence to target Russia’s energy network.
GBP/USD held at $1.3474 with little movement.
USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 147.18.
AUD/USD climbed to $0.6617 after data showed weak household spending in August.
Yuan also weakened slightly, trading at 7.1321 per dollar.

Stock Market news

U.S. stocks ended higher despite the shutdown. The Dow Jones gained 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was up 0.4%. Healthcare stocks led the rally after Pfizer agreed to lower drug prices in return for tariff relief.

The ADP jobs report showing a loss of 32,000 positions weighed on sentiment early, but investors later shrugged it off. History shows markets usually hold up during shutdowns, and this week was no exception.

Outside the U.S., Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.8%, while Australia’s main stock index closed flat. Markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for holidays.

Commodity Market news

Oil prices bounced back after three days of losses. Brent crude rose 0.57% to $65.72 per barrel, and WTI climbed 0.55% to $62.12.

Prices got support from worries about tighter sanctions on Russian oil and China’s stockpiling demand. Still, rising supply from OPEC+ and a U.S. government shutdown kept gains in check.

Gold Market News

Gold traded near record highs at around $3,860 per ounce. Investors are buying the metal as a safe haven during the shutdown and weak job numbers. With the Fed expected to cut rates again, gold is staying strong.

Crypto

Bitcoin is closing in on its all-time high of $124,128. Traders call this rally “Uptober” (October's historical tendency to be a strong month for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies) as the coin has started the month strong.

The shutdown is driving demand for cryptocurrencies and is seen as a store of value outside government control. At the same time, investors are betting the U.S. economy could lose $15 billion in GDP each week the shutdown continues.