Will Gold Stay Above $3,300? Key Levels to Watch

Gold prices rebounded in Asian trade on Wednesday after falling sharply earlier in the week. The brief selloff followed news of a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. While the ceasefire initially reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold, skepticism about its durability kept market nerves alive.

Just hours after the agreement, Trump accused both sides of failing to uphold their commitments, casting doubt on the truce’s stability. Media reports also revealed that recent U.S. strikes only delayed Iran’s nuclear program by a few months, not eliminating the threat entirely.

Despite this, the ceasefire pulled gold down to two-week lows around $3,295 before prices quickly bounced back.

Dollar Weakness Supports Gold Recovery

One of the main drivers behind gold’s recovery is the softening U.S. dollar. In Asian trading, the Dollar Index slipped 0.1%, approaching a one-week low. This drop followed a mix of weak U.S. consumer confidence data and dovish cues from the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened. USD/JPY declined after Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura made hawkish comments, and Japan's Services Producer Price Index came in hotter than expected. A weaker dollar tends to support gold, as it lowers the price for buyers using other currencies.

Powell Remains Cautious on Rates

Markets continue to process Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments. In his testimony, Powell said the Fed plans to stay cautious on rate cuts and will wait to see how trade tariffs affect inflation. His tone leaned hawkish, but the broader picture remains unclear.

U.S. consumer confidence declined unexpectedly in June, suggesting growing economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, some Fed officials, like Cleveland’s President Hammack, signaled no urgency to cut rates, keeping markets in a wait-and-see mode.

Gold Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Holding Above 200-Day SMA at $3,325

Gold is currently hovering around the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,325. This level has proven to be strong support in recent sessions. A daily close below it could open the door to deeper losses.

• Next support: $3,297
• Support area: $3,238 - 3,250

Upside Resistance Levels

To regain momentum, bulls need a close above the 21-day SMA at $3,352.

• Next resistance: $3,377
• Breakout target: $3,400

Gold Market Outlook

Despite short-term price pressure from easing Middle East tensions, analysts say gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. Gold selloff was an overreaction and that the market backdrop still supports gold.

Gold remains up roughly 26.5% year-to-date, largely driven by central bank buying, uncertainty over tariffs, and shifting rate expectations. But in recent weeks, momentum has stalled as markets seek direction from macro data and geopolitical headlines.

Gold Bottom Line Is

Gold prices have held critical support despite easing geopolitical fears. A weak dollar and lingering uncertainty over the Iran-Israel ceasefire continue to offer some support. However, unless buyers reclaim the 21-day SMA soon, downside risks remain toward the $3,297 and $3,250 levels. Market focus now turns to upcoming U.S. housing data, GDP reports, and Powell’s next round of testimony.