fb#C-COCOA Price Forecast | Cocoa supplies in West Africa fell slightly | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-COCOA : 2020-03-30

Recommendation for Cocoa :

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 2300

Buy Stop

Below 2150

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1670
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, Cocoa: D1 approached the long-term support line and couldn’t break it down so far. Now it’s trying to correct upward. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for the further increase. We do not exclude bullish movement if Cocoa rises above its last upper fractal: 2300. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial stop loss is possible both below the last lower fractal and the Parabolic signal: 2150. After opening a pending order, we move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can change to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of trend. If the price overcomes the stop level (2150) without activating the order (2300), it is recommended to delete the order: some internal changes in the market weren’t taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

The cocoa beans supply to the ports of Côte d'Ivoire was reduced. Will Cocoa quotes grow?

The state of Côte d'Ivoire is located in West Africa and is the world's largest cocoa producer with a market share of 35%. Cocoa deliveries to the ports of Côte d'Ivoire in the agricultural season 2019/20 from October 1 to March 22 decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period of the previous season and amounted to 1,623 million tons. Let us note that since the beginning of February, cocoa has fallen in price by 13%, as chocolate producers were afraid of a reduction in demand for their products amid the coronavirus epidemic. Nestle, the world's largest producer of confectionery products, announced that it will exclude from its purchases cocoa beans grown in protected forests in West Africa. Previously, the Western companies Ferrero, Lindt, Mondelez, Olam and Cargill committed themselves to the Cocoa and Forests initiative (CFI) program. Theoretically, this may contribute to the seizure of part of illegal cocoa beans from the world market.

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