Technical Analysis USDCHF : 2015-02-11

Awaiting "flat" ending

Let us consider the EUR/CHF currency pair on the H4 chart. We have chosen it because no important macroeconomic data are expected today from the USA. Yesterday Switzerland announced several economic indicators for January. They turned out to be slightly better-than-expected. Among other things, deflation marked a decrease. Our analysts suggest that it is a factor underpinning the franc. Forthcoming Swiss important data will be issued only on February, 18-19. Until then, Swiss franc may strengthen against euro. The single currency can be undermined by crisis in Greece and tomorrow Germany inflation report.


If we look at the H4 chart, the EUR/CHF has been traded at a narrow neutral range for quite a long time. The corridor was shaped by Swiss franc pulling back after the intense growth. To recap, the Swiss National Bank abandoned the fixed euro-franc exchange rate on Jan. 15, 2015. The EUR/CHF chart shows a sharp fall this day, followed by rebounding to 61.8% Fibonacci level. We suppose this movement to be succeeded with decline. The RSI-Bars oscillator displays downtrend as its bars went below 50. This is a good “bearish” sign implying euro to weaken against Swiss franc. Consequently, we do not exclude further downward momentum after the fractal support is breached at 1.04116: you may place a sell pending order there. Stop loss may be placed at 1.0592, indicated most recently by Donchian channel. This mark can be regarded as the resistance line at the moment. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic or Donchian signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered.

Sell stopbelow 1,04116
Stop lossabove 1,0592

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