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Weekly Top Gainers / Losers

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar continued to weaken. The overall package of economic stimulus measures in the US could reach $4 trillion. Against this background, US inflation soared 0.6% in March compared to February. This is the highest monthly increase since August 2012. In annual terms, US inflation in March amounted to 2.6%, which is much higher than both the Fed rate (+ 0.25%) and the US 10-Year Bond Yield. At the same time, the Fed leaders constantly declare the need to maintain a low rate and continue the buyback of securities in the amount of $120 billion per month (the current QE program). The New Zealand dollar strengthened due to the announcement by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) that it will maintain its current policy. At the same time, in the event of an increase in inflation, the rate may also grow (+ 0.25%)

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar weakened against almost all currencies. The main reason for this was Joe Biden's new plan to improve American infrastructure in the amount of $2 trillion. The overall package of economic stimulus measures may reach $4 trillion, which increases inflationary risks. The American economy is showing signs of active recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, according to the March FOMC Minutes, the Fed intends to maintain low rates and soft monetary policy. This is another factor leading to the weakening of the greenback. In turn, the euro strengthened in anticipation of the resumption of mass vaccinations in Europe. In addition, in March the growth of the Markit PMI in the manufacturing and services sectors in Europe exceeded forecasts.

Over the past 7 days, prices for oil, non-ferrous metals and other mineral raw materials decreased but still remained high. As a result, the currencies of the commodity countries strengthened: the Canadian dollar, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Mexican peso, and the South African rand. The Japanese yen weakened after the release of negative economic indicators: Balance of Trade, Industrial Production and a number of other indicators of business activity in the industry. Moreover, the yen was negatively affected by Haruhiko Kuroda's (the head of the BoJ) belief that Japanese inflation is unlikely to reach the +2% target by 2024. In January 2021, it was -0.6% in annual terms. Investors believe that the Bank of Japan will continue its soft monetary policy.

Оil quotes continued to rise over the past 7 days. Against this background, the currencies of oil-producing countries, such as the Russian ruble and the Canadian dollar, strengthened. The New Zealand dollar weakened after the announcement of negative economic indicators: ANZ Business Confidence and Electronic Retail Card Spending.

Over the past 7 days, oil quotes continued to grow. Precious metals, including gold, fell in price. Against this background, the shares of oil companies increased, the Russian ruble strengthened, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the South African rand, weakened. The US dollar strengthened on the back of continued growth in US Treasury bond notes.

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