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Brent vs Ruble Technical Analysis - Brent vs Ruble Trading: 2021-03-23
Brent RUB Technical Analysis Summary
Below 5330
Sell Stop
Above 4750
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Sell |
| MACD | Sell |
| MA(200) | Neutral |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
Brent RUB Chart Analysis
Brent RUB Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, BRENT/RUB: D1 breached down the uptrend support line. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for a further drop. We do not exclude a bearish move if BRENT/RUB falls below the last low: 4750. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss above the high since October 2018 and the Parabolic signal: 5330. After opening the pending order, we can move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal maximum. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (5330) without activating the order (4750), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes that have not been taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of PCI - Brent RUB
In this review, we suggest considering the "BRENT vs the Ruble" personal composite instrument (PCI). It reflects the dynamics of changes in the cost of a Brent barrel against the Russian currency. Will the BRENT/RUB quotes go down?
PCI declines when oil gets cheaper and the ruble strengthens against the US dollar and, on the contrary, it grows when oil prices rise while the ruble weakens. By contrast, the Russian currency tends to strengthen at high oil prices and weaken at low oil prices. Because of this, BRENT/RUB quotes usually fluctuate around their long-term, 200-day moving average. Now they have deviated noticeably from it. In other words, the ruble remains weak against the US dollar despite strong growth in world oil prices. Recall that the all-time high of this PCI was at 5909 in October 2018. Now it is below this level, but at the same time, it breached down the upward trend line. PCI fluctuations around the moving average are due to the Russian export structure. According to Russian Customs statistics, the share of fuel and energy products exported from Russia to non-CIS countries in 2020 amounted to 53.8% (66.9% in January-December 2019). The slight decrease is due to the drop in world oil prices because of the coronavirus pandemic.
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This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.
