CFTC report – signals of EUR,GBP sentiments changes


14/7/2014

According to the report of Commodity Futures Trading Commission for today we observe bearish EUR, JPY, CHF trends and bullish CAD, NZD, MXN, AUD and GBP. However this week’s data is interesting as it provides the first warning signal for EUR bears and GBP bulls. CAD’s attracton is growing, with investors adding to the net long position, driving it to $1bn. However the net long AUD position narrowed, but remains elevated at $3.4bn. There was likely a reallocation of AUD longs into CAD; however the core take away is that near‐term sentiment remains bullish for the commodity currencies.

EUR bears made no change to their extended $10bn short position; however the lack of a further build is a warning signal that downward momentum could be slowing. GBP longs grew nervous and took the opportunity to close out some of their exposures. The net long GBP position remains the largest at $4.5bn but the shift this week warns of a potential change in sentiment. JPY bears continue to maintain a fairly constant short position, even in the face of substantial JPY strength.

Long or Short Ratio></td><td style=Net Long or Short Position vs USD

CurrencyTrendPosition volume, $blnWeekly change, $bln
CADupward 964 711
AUDupward 3,440‐252
NZDupward1,267479
EURdownward‐10,084308
GBPupward4,458‐1,588
CHFdownward‐95469
JPYdownward‐8,169‐943
Goldupward19,791422


Data origin: CFTC, Scotiabank
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